Gold up, Bitcoin down

Gold up, Bitcoin down

Good weeks,

The COVID-19 epidemic, which we forgot or did not want to remember for a while, died in China for the first time in 6 months. For this reason, while the hopes that the zero-COVID policies will be finished by China are postponed to six months later, this situation negatively affects the indices on the grounds that it will also reflect on the already problematic supply chain. For example, the expectations that there will be a problem in the supply of iPhone 14 for New Year’s gifts will negatively affect the Apple stock and technology sector for a long time. While commodities were also affected by this process, heavy metals such as iron ore lost up to 3 percent on Monday morning. On the other hand, the year 2022 has become a ‘crypto winter’ and it continues with all its harshness. The damage report of the FTX issue has not yet been fully made. Grayscale, on the other hand, does not disclose its reserves due to security concerns, while there is a complete security and anxiety problem. That’s why we’re starting a week full of problems.

The speeches of Fed officials, who had a very intense course in expectations about the Fed last week, help us to read the picture more clearly. Average expectations in the market are that the Fed will increase interest rates by 75 or 125bps and leave it there. While the market recession expectations rose to 65 percent, a U-turn is expected in 2023 due to the recession concerns from the Fed’s rate hike path. Earlier in 1984, Paul Volcker gave up the mathematical equation that defined unemployment and inflation and made an interest rate cut of more than 500bp that year, making a 500bp reduction from the historically high interest rates of the USA, and then he had to resign in 1987 as a result of increasing reactions. Therefore, in the upcoming period, we may see an increase in metals such as gold and silver when investors consider the multipliers in the stock markets and the situation in cryptocurrencies.

The economy is preparing for Thanksgiving this week. However, before the early closure of the USA on Friday, bill and bond auctions in the USA on Monday evening will be important, while the speeches of Mester, George and Bullard on Tuesday, durable goods orders on Wednesday and weekly unemployment benefits applications will be followed. The CBRT is expected to cut interest rates from 10.50% to 9.00% on Thursday. In the economic calendar of cryptocurrencies, the agenda is not very busy, FTX news is followed.

Bitcoin started the new week with a wink behind the $16,000 level. While the chain data shows us that there is money outflow in the market and there are BTCs inserted to be sold to the exchanges, we see that the accounts that hold 6-12 months BTC in their wallets are on sale. While the chain data presents a very weak picture, we are watching close to the costs of medium-sized miners. $ 600 million worth of BTC and ETH stolen from FTX are also either sold or moved. However, it is almost certain that it will somehow be transferred to the market. Therefore, while the price pressure continues, it reminds us of the support of 15,860 – 15,525 – 14,920 dollars. It looks like the downward pressure and movement may continue in Bitcoin.

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