BTC holders may need to triple their on-chain loss for the Bitcoin price to make a macro bottom.
market research company To Baro Virtual According to the report, the 2022 bear market has not yet hardened as much as previous downtrends.
Bitcoin loss ‘only’ $671 million
Where Bitcoin will bottom is one of the agenda items this month. Analysts are predicting a return to $14,000 or below for the BTC/USD pair.
to Whalemap According to Baro Virtual, which analyzes the data of the data, where the bottom will be may be just a matter of arithmetic.
Moving profit and loss for Whalemap’s on-chain Bitcoin transactions (MPL) data, Baro Virtual made an interesting determination. According to the research firm, past lows in BTC price cycles occurred after the level of loss in the current bear market coincided with or exceeded the level of profit in the previous bull market.
In most instances where this did not happen, the Bitcoin price continued to decline.
According to Baro Virtual, the current level of loss is not enough to place Bitcoin on the historical capitulation trend. Therefore, it is possible to continue selling at a loss in the Bitcoin market.
Considering what level the loss should reach, it turns out that the final low level may be much lower than the $ 15,480 level seen this week.
“The current loss was $671 million, and the maximum profit in the bull market was between $1.3 billion-$1.7 billion,” Baro Virtual continued:
“Therefore, an additional $629 million to $1.029 billion must be recorded for us to confirm that the capitulation is complete.”
Bitcoin’s depreciation rate in the current bear market has not yet reached the level seen in 2014 and 2018.
BTC/USD is down 77 percent compared to the record high set in November 2021. This rate is lower than the previous two bear markets.